2011年11月16日星期三

In the French style shirt collocation rules

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Harmonia Windsor French shirt you
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Two pocket towel collocation, make summer dress more color and taste.
Harmonia V-neck French shirt
Peaked lapel (around the collar from the perspective of 75 ~ 90 degrees) is the most common type of collar shirt, a pointed collar for almost all face, is the safest business shirt.
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Two button moncler kids gray striped suit is the most classic business attire, this kind of suit for high yarn wool suit, wearing cool.Suit button open is relatively high, the waist is longer, this style is the most classic business dress.

2011年11月5日星期六

Do not rush to tighten fiscal policy

financial crisis on public finances have devastating effects. Before the outbreak of financial crisis the most serious cost overruns countries hardest hit and most profound. For the Group of Seven (G7) member states, this refers to the influence of the United States by the bubble and the United Kingdom. A common problem facing the two countries is: when to start tightening and tightening and to what extent. Financial constraints must be substantial, but early action may be devastating mistake.

? University of Maryland's Carmen Reinhart (Carmen Reinhart) and Harvard University's Kenneth ? Rogoff (Kenneth Rogoff) in his book on the history of the financial crisis that, in face of crisis the impact of the country, "the actual stock of debt has almost doubled." * U.S. and UK will also be the case. Only a small part of the financial sector by storm, or the result of stimulus. International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out that from 2007 to 2010, the British budget deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio will be increased by 10.6 percentage points, but the crisis-related discretionary measures has nothing to do. ** In the U.S., the ratio will rise 6.5 percentage points, of which 1.8 percent can be attributed to such measures. Most changes are structural: GDP and fiscal revenue levels will not return to the previous path.

However, it is how to assess the financial position of the drop it? One way is from the historical point of view. IMF expects 2007 to 2014, net debt crisis will make the UK the proportion of GDP increased by nearly 50 percentage points. Comparable only before the war period. The increase over the French Napoleonic wars or the two world wars during the 20th century, smaller, but less than, or even higher than the other 18th century wars.

Thus, it is a unique history of the British financial period. The United States is not always the case. The same percentage increase in U.S. debt and very large-scale war - World War II, below, but higher than the American Civil War and the First World War. However, the debt ratio rose sharply in times of peace, this is not the first time in the United States. First appeared in the 1981-1992 period of Republican rule. During that period, they found a supply-side (Supply-side economics).

Despite the increase in debt ratios between the two countries are great, but historically, expected in 2014 will reach the level of debt is not uncommon, especially in the UK - the country's public sector net debt to GDP ratio of close to 250% twice. For the United States, debt levels may seem quite the highest level ever. However, the previous highest level which did not cause insurmountable problems. In the 19th century, both countries have successfully get rid of the debt, and prices remained stable. Half of the 20th century, they once again to be successful, however, inflation was also played some help.

This is not unexpected. Assumed real interest rate of 2.5%, then the same amount of debt and GDP real debt burden of the cost of only 2.5% of GDP, almost a piece of cake. And then assume trend growth rate and real interest rate equal to (a not unreasonable assumption), then the necessary conditions to achieve stable debt is the main budget balance (ie, before interest payments). Which is also almost no damaging consequences.

question then what is it? That is, people may no longer believe the government will eventually control the deficit. This suspicion has at least two reasons. First, the war will end naturally, peacetime deficit is not. Secondly, in the end of the war it is easy to reduce the deficit, it is difficult in times of peace: every penny of the shadow behind the lobby.

commitment to deficit reduction only lack credibility. Make the situation worse is to adjust the intensity. IMF announced in 2010, the United States for the structural primary deficit 3.7% of GDP, the UK was 7.8%. The latter is the highest of G7 nations, including Japan, with most close to 6.9%.

IMF is also assumed that, by 2030, it is necessary to debt ratio to 60% of GDP, in order to leave space to respond to new shocks. The agency concluded that the magnitude of U.S. fiscal tightening should be 8.8% of GDP, while the UK is impressive 12.8%. Other countries have made such changes, particularly in the 1980s in Ireland, and Denmark 90, Finland and Sweden. But this will be a huge challenge, unless the country can rely on rapid export-led growth. These figures make the British Prime Minister Gordon ? Brown (Gordon Brown) has become a nonsense to keep the stability of the declaration. This is hardly the future of the UK scene.

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2011年10月31日星期一

Central bank governor to dare speak

Does no one give me removed the noisy central bank do this? Getting the Bank of England in the (Bank of England) governor again critical remarks, the British Prime Minister Gordon ? Brown (Gordon Brown) may ask. For the 12th century King Henry II of England (Henry II), the trouble is that he appointed the Archbishop of Canterbury Thomas ? Beckett (Thomas Becket). Brown is to add to the trouble of Mervyn King ? (Mervyn King), he was appointed by Brown second, the status and Beckett as a solid. Similarities between the two is obvious: the people pay homage to the stability of the monetary system, the central bank is the Cardinal.

Beckett was later murdered. And Mervyn King will not come to the end ?. However, Henry II's successor, Archbishop of the Church and its final bow before that. Bank of England will face the same destiny?

In fact, one of the consequences of this crisis is threatening the central bank's independence, and not only in the UK. This is for three reasons: in official interest rates close to zero, the monetary and fiscal policy have become blurred; governments - especially Britain and the U.S. government - the huge budget deficit, the stability of the monetary system pose a threat; there is a reason for last: a disaster caused by those in power want to shirk responsibility.

In fact, gold is not the only one of the central bank has been criticized. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke ? (Ben Bernanke) because in Bank of America (Bank of America) acquisition of Merrill Lynch (Merrill Lynch) in the case of the role, has been strongly criticized the U.S. Congress. Staggering, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel ? (Angela Merkel) have been directly criticized the European Central Bank (ECB), including the implementation of various unconventional central bank policies.

turbulent times will have a noisy central bank governors, as well as around the central functions of the different opinions. The problem is that central bankers how to act? Central bank independence, especially in such a precarious politics so chaotic, the situation is so severe the UK. My point is: be careful, but not blindly silence.

King's four points, and both are critical of government: first, with the Fed's belief, "If the banks are considered too big to fail, then ... they are too big & rdquo ;; Second, the Bank of England has "given the new law, maintaining financial system stability in terms of ... ... (but) if we can do is limited to sermons or funeral arrangements, then we do not know, the central bank will recently been given to carry out its statutory responsibilities "; Third, the Government has not the forthcoming White Paper on financial services, seek professional advice; Finally, as in his House of Commons Finance Committee (Commons Treasury committee) speech when he said:" If the Budget forecast assumed when GDP trajectory of economic recovery in line with reality, then I think that the progress of our deficit reduction, it may be faster than the (budget) forecast implies progress. "

Let us start from a simple question: The four points of the central bank governor thrust is correct? The answer is: right, all right. Although the scale is not the only consideration, but do not worry if the private sector bankruptcy, they should not operate freely. Similarly, it is necessary not only to match the power and responsibility, and, as a focus of the overall economic situation of the institution, the Bank of England's most suitable to impose the financial system "macro prudential" controls.

In addition, the Government has not consulted on the forthcoming White Paper on the views of the Bank of England governor, this argument, if true, it is also a problem looks incredible. Most importantly, only Brown and his cronies will deny this obvious fact the following: (UK) is simply the financial situation is difficult to maintain - the OECD (OECD) predicts that by 2010, Britain's budget deficit will gross domestic product accounted for (GDP) of 14%. Slash spending to GDP ratio, while increasing the tax to GDP ratio is inevitable.

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2011年10月28日星期五

Britain is tightening too far

In addition to speaking the same language, the United States and Britain, there are many similarities: both countries have experienced a significant expansion of the family credit; both countries have had to rescue the country's financial industry; regard the two central banks cut rates to near zero and take the "quantitative easing" policy; after the crisis between the two countries have experienced a massive increase in deficit. However, the two countries is now a huge policy differences. British coalition government recently announced the details of government spending cuts. It is expected that the U.S. will not take similar initiatives. In the latest Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out the differences. But the bond market seems to have turned a blind eye, at least for now.

we can determine the difference between the two countries after the crisis experience: U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) fell less (peak to trough decline of 4%, while the United Kingdom 6.4%), the unemployment rate were recorded (2007 to 2010, increased by 5%, UK 2.5%) U.S. core inflation rate fell faster than the UK (as of September of the year fell to 0.8%, while the United Kingdom 2.9%), mainly As the impact of sterling depreciation.

However, both countries are experiencing a protracted and frustrating bubble deleveraging and tightening process, the University of Maryland (University of Maryland) ? Carmen Reinhart (Carmen Reinhart) and Harvard ( Harvard) ? Kenneth Rogoff (Kenneth Rogoff) in his book "This is not the same" (This Time is Different) explains this point. Two economies are far from full load operation. Both countries must make a choice: one is the recovery of short-term financial crunch on the risk of large fiscal deficits on the other hand is a more long-term reliability of credit risk. Both countries rely on monetary policy. However, in view of the expected fiscal tightening, the UK is certainly far more than the U.S. dependency.

then why is there such differences? Its impact will be? The extent to which quantitative easing policy will offset these effects? Finally, we can monetary and fiscal policy in the role of each draw what lessons?

first answer is that the euro zone financial crisis shaken the British decision-makers become sober. I always think that the example of Greece and the United Kingdom are very different. Greece does not own central bank, to restore growth prospects bleak. I always thought that the British planned fiscal tightening - cyclically adjusted, the UK will be in five years is equivalent to GDP 8% of the tightening - was overdone. However, the U.S. failed to come up a long time to tighten fiscal policy in a credible way, which is very irresponsible act.

on the possible impact of fiscal tightening, IMF latest World Economic Outlook (World Economic Outlook) provides an incisive analysis. IMF to overthrow the "expansion of the crunch," the argument. It is suggested that previous studies failed to determine the stage of deliberate austerity, but rather focus on a cyclically adjusted deficit reduction period. This is completely different.

analysis of the main conclusions are as follows:

first, accounting for GDP 1% of the fiscal consolidation, often within two years so that the actual domestic demand 1%, GDP fell 0.5%. If so, the British fiscal consolidation will reduce the actual demand, if other factors remain unchanged, the domestic demand will be reduced 8%, GDP will decline 4 percent.

Second, interest rates will usually alleviate these effects. Now that the situation can not be the case. This will increase the cost of fiscal consolidation.

Third, the real exchange rate fell often alleviate this impact. This applies to the UK situation, since the crisis, the real exchange rate pound fell by about 18%.

fourth, compared with the adjustment of tax-driven, relying on spending cuts of more expansionary fiscal contraction. But in part because the central bank's response seems to be more radical.

Finally, in the long run, if other factors remain unchanged, reducing the debt is advantageous because it reduces the real interest rate. Now, in the real interest rate is so low (close to 1%) on the occasion, which is still applicable, in doubt.
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2011年10月26日星期三

Guy Gets Grilled

Pledge of Payback "While I was pledging my fraternity in college, there was one guy in particular who went out of his way to make my life a living hell. So once my friends and I had moved into the frat house, we decided that a little revenge was in order. When he JlH|k went out one night, we broke into his room and filled it with ^^^^ hundreds of tiny paper cups—each filled with water. He returned later on with a girl, and they went back to his room only to find our 'surprise.' He ended up having to remove the cups one by one to avoid spilling water everywhere, and his hookup was ruined."

2011年10月20日星期四

WELCOME TO THE ISSUE

7 was very flattered that Jennifer chose to do this photo tribute to me. I can't wait to see it."
—Barbra Streisand
BARBRA STREISAND FAMOUSLY SANG, "People who need people are the luckiest people in the world." In die case of our September cover story, there are many people to thank.
It started with Jennifer Aniston and her longtime hairstylist and friend, Chris McMillan, who had the brilliant idea to pay homage to Barbra. The two mentioned it to photographer Mark Seliger, who then told me. I thought it was too good to be true—until I ran into Jennifer at the La Mamounia hotel opening in Morocco last Thanksgiving.
After that, we started our collaboration in earnest. Jennifer personally chose die pictures of Barbra she wanted to emulate, storyboarding the shoot like a director. On set, she hit all the right notes, channeling her muse all the way to Barbras legendary fingernails.
This fall is set to be a Streisand moment in more ways than one. Barbra is releasing her long-anticipated book of interiors, My Passion for Design. My good friend Wendy Goldberg made an introduction, and the next thing I knew, it was "Barbra Streisand on line 1."
As it always does, die conversation turned to fashion. Barbra laughed and said she wore her famous newsboy cap from What's Up, Doc? recently and was followed by the paparazzi. (Never underestimate the power of a great accessoiy.) "I was very flattered that Jennifer chose to do this photo tribute to me," Barbra says. "I can't wait to see it."
So, while people need people, it's thanks to Jennifer's passion and Barbras continued inspiration that this story truly sings.

2011年10月17日星期一

My Bikini-Emergency-Plan at a glance

...works for each season!
Specific diets often encourage following selected recipes. An Almased shake in conjunction with these recipes ensures even more success and positive feelings. The metabolism activator goes well with every diet.
Power Dinner Canceling is a very popular diet version of healthy weight loss. You replace your dinner and one additional meal per day with an Almased shake.
People who want to lose weight fast can achieve this goal with protein modified fasting. Especially effective for this type of fasting is the first phase of the Bikini-Emergency-Plan.
A terrific anti-aging method! While sleeping, your body regenerates itself from daily harmful effects, such as work, free radicals or stress. Your body bums most of the fat overnight... but only if you have special building blocks and vital nutrients available for your body. Therefore: A shake with 50 grams of Almased consumed between 6 and 7 pm ensures a restful sleep. You feel awake and in a good mood the next morning. Everyone can perform this immediate and simple test: Sleep well.
FIRST WEEK
Morning-Noon-Evening
In Ihe first week, replace all 3 meals with 8 tablespoons of Almased for each meal. Drink vegetable broth along with this diet, as much as you like.
Evening
8 tablespoons of Almased (50g)ii low-fat milk and 1 teaspoon of cinnamon or unsweetened cocoa powdei, if desired
Noon
Vegetables and salad with lean meat or fish
SECOND WEEK AND BEYOND
Morning
8 tablespoons af Almased (50 gi in low-fat milk audi teaspoon of cinnamon or unsweetened cocoa powder, if desired
RECIPE TIP
Delicious vegetable broth
Cutup 1 pound (approx. 500g) of different fresh vegetables (e.g. broccoli, leek, potatoes, tomatoes, onions, beans, turnip cabbage, spinach, peas, cabbage, and bellpeppeis) in small pieces and saute lightly. Cook until sofi in appro*. 4 pints (2 liters) of water in pressure cooker or regular pot (increased cooking lime). Poui thecooked vegetable broth ihrough a strainer, filter out the solid pieces, and only drink the liquid.
IMPORTANT!
In addition, dtink plenty of water (appro> 8-W cups a
day), if possitle rich m
minerals. The _ _
mote you driik, the faster you
will lose weight.